MFSMAI Oracle
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MFSMAI Oracle Track Record
Every AI forecast is logged. When the underlying Polymarket market resolves, we compare MFSMAI Oracle's probability against the actual outcome — and against what the market was pricing. Lower Brier score is better.
Resolved
4
of 36 total
AI Brier Score
0.003
Lower = better
Market Brier
0.101
Crowd baseline
AI Accuracy
100%
vs market 75%
MFSMAI Oracle is currently outperforming the Polymarket crowd on Brier score.
◢ Calibration plot
Predicted probability vs actual outcome frequency
A well-calibrated forecaster's points hug the dashed diagonal. Above the line means the AI was too pessimistic in that bucket; below means too optimistic.
AI calibration Perfect (y=x)· Bubble size ∝ count
◢ Brier trend (weekly)
AI vs market Brier score over time
Each point averages all forecasts whose markets resolved that ISO week. Lower is better — when MFSMAI Oracle's line stays below the dashed market line, the AI is calling outcomes more accurately than the crowd.
MFSMAI Oracle Polymarket· Lower Brier is better
